Will China Face the Same Tariff Treatment as India? A Look at U.S. Trade Strategy
In a surprising but strategic move, the United States recently announced a 25% tariff on a range of Indian imports. The reason? India’s continued energy cooperation with Russia — particularly its increasing oil and gas imports.
This policy shift raises a critical question:
Could China be next?
Let’s break it down.
Why Did the U.S. Impose Tariffs on India?
The Biden administration framed the decision as part of a broader effort to punish economic partners of Russia, using secondary sanctions or trade penalties.
India, while not directly violating U.S. sanctions, has significantly increased its purchase of discounted Russian oil, weakening the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. For the U.S., tariffs become a tool to signal disapproval and apply pressure — economically and politically.
Could China Be Next?
China is also a major buyer of Russian energy, with stronger trade ties to Russia than India. It’s natural to ask whether the U.S. could extend similar tariff measures to Chinese goods. Here’s an assessment based on three key factors:
- Energy Imports from Russia
China has significantly increased energy imports from Russia since 2022. These include:
- Crude oil
- Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
- Coal
From a policy standpoint, this mirrors India’s position — and even surpasses it in volume.
This puts China within potential risk range if energy trade is the metric.
- Geopolitical Tensions
China–U.S. relations are already tense due to issues like:
- Tech decoupling
- South China Sea disputes
- Taiwan
- Human rights and supply chain security
Tariffs and trade restrictions have been used repeatedly in recent years. While India was previously treated as a friendly partner, China is often seen as a strategic competitor.
This raises the probability of targeted trade action.
- Economic Interdependence
However, the U.S. depends heavily on imports from China, especially in categories like:
- Consumer electronics
- Machinery
- Furniture
- Toys
- Solar panels
A blanket 25% tariff on Chinese goods would likely:
- Spike inflation in the U.S.
- Disrupt retail supply chains
- Anger American importers and consumers
This makes broad tariffs on China unlikely — unless there’s a significant escalation.
Instead, targeted tariffs on strategic industries (e.g. EVs, solar, semiconductors) are more probable.
What This Means for Importers, Exporters & Freight Forwarders
If you’re engaged in cross-border trade with China, here are a few suggestions to stay ahead of risk:
- Diversify your supply chain – Start sourcing from multiple countries.
- Pay attention to USTR updates – U.S. Trade Representative policy shifts can happen quickly.
- Avoid high-risk categories – Especially energy-related goods or sanctioned materials.
- Negotiate flexible shipping terms – Lock in freight rates or use DDP incoterms to avoid surprises.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?
While India’s 25% tariff hike is a warning shot, China’s situation is more complex. Political tensions are high, but economic entanglement makes sweeping tariffs less likely. That said, targeted pressure is very much on the table.
Smart exporters and importers should expect continued volatility and plan accordingly.