US-China Trade Talks Go Surprisingly Smooth – Is the Bull Market Back?
On May 12, China and the U.S. held face-to-face trade talks in Switzerland — the first since the Trump era. Both sides released statements confirming “substantial progress” and plan to issue a joint statement later today.
Key Highlights:
- China insists on removing all additional tariffs, no political exchanges (like fentanyl issues), and retains control over rare earth exports and tech development.
- The U.S. proposed cutting tariffs from 145% to possibly 80% or even lower, hoping China will help reduce the trade deficit.
- A new long-term dialogue mechanism is now in place — a big signal of de-escalation.
Markets React Instantly:
- U.S. stock futures soared: Nasdaq +1.5%, S&P 500 +1.4%, Dow +1.2%
- Chinese stocks & ETFs surged, AI and semiconductor sectors led the A-shares rally
- Offshore RMB jumped over 600 pips
- Gold fell as risk eased, while oil climbed on demand optimism
TL;DR: Positive vibes are back in global markets. With major progress in U.S.-China talks, the foundation for a strong bull market might just be forming!
US-China Relations: China-US Trade Summit
| Field | China’s Main Demands | US’s Main Demands | Possible Areas for Compromise |
| Trade Imbalance | China mainly seeks to increase US imports, with only exports accounting for less than 50% of the trade volume, reducing trade barriers | The US requires China to increase imports by 60%, with imports accounting for 75%–100% of the trade volume, prioritizing high-tech products | Reduce tariffs: US imports from China 145%→100%→50%; China’s high-tech products export restrictions |
| Intellectual Property | China expects the US to open up, only for restrictions on technology investment, high-tech investors | The US demands China open up exports of high-tech products, relax restrictions on technology, and should relax | Relax restrictions on China’s high-tech products exports to the US; US relaxes technology investment restrictions |
| Technology Industry Policy | China opposes “decoupling”, competes with the US, and relaxes restrictions on Chinese technology exports | The US demands that China not produce similar products, relax restrictions, and open markets to investors | Some technology industries can relax restrictions on Chinese exports; relax US technology investment restrictions |
| Financial and Economic | China hopes the US will relax restrictions on financial services, hoping the US will relax restrictions on China | The US demands that China strengthen financial services to the US and relax restrictions on China | China can relax some financial services restrictions on the US; US relaxes restrictions on financial services |
| Market Access and Investment | China promotes foreign capital investment in industries such as finance, hoping to “support the Chinese movement”, opposing restrictions on Chinese capital | The US demands that China open up capital markets, with restrictions, and opposes restrictions on Chinese capital | Some restrictions can be relaxed: China opens up capital markets such as finance and investment; US relaxes restrictions on Chinese capital |
| Systemic Issues | Strongly opposes trade barriers and restrictions, promotes trade privatization, opposes trade barriers | The US hopes to establish a higher level of trade system, knowing the third-party system | Establish a China-US trade committee to supervise trade between the two countries; easy to supervise |